Economic report for Germany
DLV, Netzwerk Ladenbau:
ISO Congress, Barcelona, Spain, 10th May 2008.
Business situation of the 90 members of the German Shopfitting
Organisation in first quarter 2008:
- 53% of the members find the state of business good, 48% are
satisfied.
- 50% of the members’ order situation compared to last quarter is
improved, 32% no change.
- 60% are satisfied with the order situation.
- 60% has increased employment, but complain about lack of skilled labour. (66% cannot get sufficient manpower).
- Expectations are still high: 66% expects an increase in sales turnover
in 2008.
Worth noting:
- The planning process is increased with 41% of the members, compared
to last year.
- The export has increased with 46% of the members compared to 2007. 70%
of the members are convinced that international competition in Germany
is unchanged.
- 52% has increased investments.
Raw material price influence:
- As a result of the rising cost of iron ore and coal, the steel prices
has shown considerable further increases in the beginning of 2008. The
German steel companies have raised the price per ton with 60 Euro per
April 1, 2008 at the same time as they experience the highest increase
in order volume since the fall of the wall. Nickel, Chrome and Zink are
also at a record high, why in particular, the Fixture System
manufacturers, have huge problems in obtaining sales prices that are
matching the cost level. But a reduction in the explosive growth in the
raw material costs is not to be expected.
On the contrary: The forecasting predict further increases.
- 45% of the DLV members are at present planning price increases.
- Another poll is underway, and shall be published at the DLV Spring
meeting in Bozen.
Conclusion:
- A downswing (as predicted by big businesses such as Siemens) is not
yet expected by the
DLV members. They are still in good mood, order situation and sales
turnover is OK.
Euroshop, DLV opinion poll:
Asked about their assessment of the Euroshop, the DLV members
answered:
Positive:
- International visitors, international exhibitors.
- Many professional visitors, remarkable increase compared to 2005.
- High quality booth constructions.
- Positive investment climate, positive general mood in the retail
trade.
- A leading show and a must for the shopfitter.
Negative:
- Little really new innovations were presented.
- Too many exhibitors, difficult to overlook the whole show.
- Many German top-retailers did not visit.
- Photo prohibition was neglected.
- The Messe Düsseldorf Organisation was insufficient.
The DLV members were missing real innovation and new product ideas
for store fitting, which they find should be expected at a leading fair
like the Euroshop.
Business in general, Germany, April 2008.
The general economical situation on the labour market is still
improving, unemployment is surprisingly fallen by 110.000 to 3.507
million. That is 617.000 less than a year ago according to official
sources (BA). The unemployment rate is now 8,1%.
The forecasts predict continuous improvement, the companies need more
labour, and a fall to 3 million unemployed is possible. Experts state
that the industry’s order situation is level with the boom following the
reunification in the nineties. E.g. Unicredit informs, that an opinion
poll (by Boston Consulting and US Trade Office) with 71 leading US
companies in Germany says:
- New jobs are created in Marketing & sales, as well as Research &
Development, most of all
in manufacturing (Machine, Metal, Electronics) full order books and long
delivery times
keeps employment up. The main motor of this trend is the SME’s (small
and medium sized
enterprises).
- Reductions take place in general administration. 45% wants cut downs.
This particularly
apply to competitive business such as transport, mail, banks.
- 80% of the US companies in the poll plan to concentrate their European
investments in
Germany.
Original, German version by A. Krause, DLV, 03.05.2008
ISO Secretariat resumé and translation.
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